I know. It’s barely October, the mums just went out on the front porch and I’m already talking about the holidays. But let’s face it – Lowe’s Home Improvement has had that giant skeleton on display since July. The holidays creep closer each year, but the way holidays fall in 2026 presents some interesting challenges.
This year’s holiday calendar is unusually short, and every year we witness that the businesses that come out ahead in December are the ones making decisions right now. Thanksgiving falls late (Nov. 26), which puts Small Business Saturday on Nov. 28 – just 27 days before Christmas. That’s one of the tightest shopping windows you can get between the two holidays.
Holiday shoppers are planning earlier, researching more and – good news for local businesses – heading back into physical stores (hurray!). With such a short window, the plan you build in October decides how December goes. In this post, I walk through what this year’s research says, then give you a week-by-week timeline and a checklist you can work through before Thanksgiving.

Quick context if we haven’t met: I’m Sally, I lead client services here at Triangle Media Partners and I spend a lot of my week translating national research into something a local business owner can actually use to connect with their customers.
Why This Year’s Calendar Is Different
Two things are squeezing the season. First, the late Thanksgiving. Second, Cyber Monday lands Nov. 30 – still in November – which the Mastercard Economics Institute points out concentrates online shopping into one long weekend.
That weekend matters a lot. PwC’s Holiday Outlook 2026 survey found that roughly 40% of all planned gift spending is expected to happen in the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday. If your customers don’t know about you by then, you’re competing for what’s left.
Think of it like hosting a dinner party. Your guests arrive at 7 p.m. no matter what, so the shopping, prep and table setting all have to happen before the doorbell rings. In marketing terms, the doorbell rings Nov. 26.
Shoppers Are Heading Back Into Stores
This is the part of the research I’m most excited to share with our advertisers. After years of hearing that everything is moving online, the 2026 data tells a more balanced story.
- In-store sales are forecast to grow 3.6%, according to Mastercard, which would be the strongest showing for physical retail in four years. (Online is still growing faster, at 11%.)
- More than half of shoppers want to see gifts in person. In PwC’s survey, 52% of consumers expect to visit stores to decide what to give, and 60% expect to buy gifts in-store.
- Gen Z is the most enthusiastic about it. PwC found 71% of Gen Z shoppers enjoy browsing in person – higher than consumers overall.
For a local retailer, restaurant or service business, this is an opening. Your job is to make sure they know where to go and have a reason to choose you when they get there.
They’re Doing Their Homework Earlier, Too
Walking into a store doesn’t mean shoppers arrive without a plan. PwC found 29% of consumers plan to use AI somewhere in their holiday shopping (up from 22% last year), mostly to research products and compare prices.
Mastercard’s analysis turned up something I have suspected but now have evidence for: Shoppers who pay for AI tools actually spread their spending across a broader set of merchants, including smaller and boutique retailers, specialty food stores, florists and restaurants. They also tend to shop earlier in the season.
So the discovery step (search, AI answers, magazine pages, social feeds) of holiday shopping happens in October and early November, long before anyone pulls into your parking lot. If you read our July post on AI and local search, this is where that work pays off. Accurate holiday hours, listed events and a complete Google Business Profile translate to recommendations.
Value and Meaning Matter
Budgets are careful this year. Deloitte expects holiday sales to grow 4% to 4.8%, but notes that shoppers across income levels are still switching brands and leaning on promotions to stretch their dollars. PwC found eight in 10 consumers plan to use some kind of budgeting strategy.
At the same time, people aren’t cutting the things that make the season feel like the season. PwC found 64% of consumers are prioritizing screen-free gifts, and 63% of Gen Z say a shared meal matters more to them than a physical present.
Your holiday message doesn’t have to be a discount. Discounts can bring a quick bump, but research from the IPA’s advertising effectiveness database found that emotional messaging builds stronger, longer-lasting results – and heavy discounting can train customers to wait for the next sale. A story about why your product or experience belongs in someone’s traditions can do more for you than another percentage off. Main Street America suggests pairing a value option with a splurge option so shoppers at every budget have a way in – I really like that framing, and it’s simple to execute.
Work Backward From the Weekend That Matters
Here’s the timeline I’d recommend for most local businesses. Adjust for your industry (a caterer’s calendar looks different from a boutique’s), but the same logic applies:
October: Plan and Lock In Your Long-Lead Channels
- Decide on your holiday offer, events and hours.
- Book print now. Magazine placements have the longest lead time – for example, ad space in Durham Magazine’s December/January issue closes Oct. 9.
- Update your Google Business Profile with holiday hours and events.
Early to Mid-November: Warm Up Your Audience
- Launch digital ads a few weeks before you need results. Ad platforms need time to learn who responds, so a campaign that starts Thanksgiving week is already playing catch-up.
- Publish your gift guide, holiday menu or event calendar on your website and social channels.
- Email your existing customers first. People who already know you are your easiest yes.
Nov. 26-30: The Five Days
- Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. Have your offer live, your staff ready and your “How did you hear about us?” question at the register.
December: Don’t Coast Through the Final Stretch
- Last-minute shoppers are real. Mastercard found that during the 2025 season, more than 35% of in-store spending on jewelry, handbags, department stores and cosmetics between Nov. 22 and Christmas happened in the final week. Keep a reminder campaign running through Dec. 24.
- Promote gift cards and experiences for the procrastinators on your list (we all have a few).
Your Holiday Marketing Checklist (Check it Twice! 😉)
Each of these fits into an already-busy week. Pick the ones that match your business and put them on your calendar today.
- [Low effort, ~15 min] Confirm your holiday hours, events and closures, then update your Google Business Profile and website.
- [Low effort, ~20 min] Choose one value offer and one splurge offer.
- [Medium effort, ~1 hour] Map your marketing calendar backward from Nov. 26, with print deadlines first.
- [Medium effort, ~1 hour] Plan one in-person moment – an open house, a maker night or a tasting – and start promoting it at least three weeks out.
- [Low effort, ~10 min] Add “How did you hear about us?” to your holiday checkout so your January review has real data behind it. (Here’s our simple tracker if you need one.)
- [Low effort, ~5 min] Set a Dec. 15 reminder to launch your last-week push.
Here’s the bottom line: The holidays arrive on schedule whether your plan is ready or not. This year gives you less runway than usual, but the research is encouraging for local businesses. People want to shop in person, they’re open to discovering new places and they’re willing to spend on what feels meaningful. Make it easy for them to find you before the doorbell rings.
If you’re already advertising with us, or thinking about it, this is exactly the kind of planning we’re doing with clients right now. Email Chris Elkins at chris.elkins@trianglemediapartners.com and she’ll help you figure out what makes sense for your season.
Sources
- Main Street America, “Main Spotlight: Preparing for a Unique Holiday Shopping Season in 2026” (Sept. 8, 2026)
- PwC, “Holiday Outlook 2026” (Sept. 8, 2026)
- Deloitte, “Deloitte Forecasts Holiday Retail Sales to Reach $1.70 Trillion to $1.71 Trillion” (Sept. 10, 2026)
- Mastercard Economics Institute, “From AI-powered planning to the Christmas Eve rush: What to expect this holiday season” (Sept. 23, 2026)


